My Date Flake Rate in San Francisco is at 61% year-to-date


Note: a previous version of this post had the flake rate at 80%. Turns out I had forgotten a couple of girls I did end up meeting.

Finally ran the numbers and created the spreadsheet I’ve been visualizing for a while.

Note the stood up/ghost combo on March 8, and of course this past Wednesday when I triple booked three girls at the same time, and they all flaked.

Tally that up, boys, and imagine setting a date and knowing that 3 out of 5 times it’s not going to happen. That is reality in San Francisco.

At least I have a spreadsheet now so I can begin to isolate variables.

9 thoughts on “My Date Flake Rate in San Francisco is at 61% year-to-date

  1. Have you tried dropping a nuclear disqualifier before the date to see if it increases the show ratio?

    Before the date, maybe the morning of if they’ve confirmed, say something like, “Hey Stacey, I still want to hang tonight but I think we should just be friends. I don’t want you to have the wrong idea.”

    Preemptive friendzoning a girl (before she can reject your or LJBF you) can turn a cold lead red hot. It’s kind of like actual sorcery. It’s worked for me a few times.


  2. Magnum

    Love that you’ve tracked this in such detail, it’s the key first step in understanding what is going on and what adjustments might be made to address it, if any.

    I haven’t been tracking my flakes, but I do have data from May 2016 up to now of how many numbers I’ve gotten and how many dates I’ve had.

    I’m excluding the data from my travels because things go so much better in any other city, so this data is just for the bay:

    2016 (May-Dec): 57 dates with different girls from a pool of 82 numbers (70%)
    2017: 63 dates with different girls from a pool of 176 numbers (36%)
    2018 (YTD): 30 dates with different girls from a pool of 98 numbers (31%)

    Definitely a downward trend. A portion of these girls have become regulars so this represents my overall bay area funnel. The lower rate could be that as I’ve been putting in more numbers I got less tailored to each girl and therefore build less comfort prior to getting them out so they faded away.

    My take away is we’re definitely in a tough dating market for men, but to reduce flakes building comfort with some good banter every other day or so prior to getting them out helps improve the odds that they’ll come out.

    Of course once they become a regular I limit texting to once or twice a week max.


  3. I’ve never done it with online leads, but I’ve done it when girls went cold – slow to respond, etc. Usually girls do those things because they’ve “got you”, you’re comfortably in their orbit now, so they can stop trying. The idea behind a nuclear dq is that you shatter that perception. It worked wonders in my small college town, I can only imagine how well it’ll work in a place like SF where (I imagine) female narcissism is off the fucking charts.

    If nothing else, it may even get them to show up in something hot just to “show you what you’re missing.”

    At the very least it’s worth testing.


  4. “Hey Stacey, I still want to hang tonight but I think we should just be friends. I don’t want you to have the wrong idea.”

    I’ve tried this before with no success. Probably incongruous for me since, outside of social events, I hardly have time for existing real-life friends, let alone online tinder strangers.


  5. I was on a business trip to SF three weeks ago, so I got to experience The Worst City in the US for Game™ in person.
    I used Tinder, Pancake method, except my profile also explicitly stated that i am in SF for travel..

    In three days: 10 matches (seems very low), two of them superlikes (that seems good).
    I used a non-committal opening (e.g. “How’s your Monday going?”), and only three sent back any reply whasoever (that seems low).
    Out of the three, one agreed to dinner (dinner instead of drinks because I only had one night, so no time to run the two date method).
    Aaaaaand… she turned out to be a True Christian Saving Herself for Marriage. And no making out on first dates, of course. Aaaaaa!


    1. *sigh*

      I don’t know whether to be sorry or slightly vindicated.

      Would definitely recommend a better opener than “How’s your going?” though. Every guy on Tinder in the US is sending that line, or something similar. You should see your response rate go up slightly by using something more unique.


  6. KL

    All but one Instagram girl flaked. Instagram is not a dating site.

    Both nightgame girls flaked. Girls have different standards when they are drunk or in a festive mood. That’s how I know JMULV is bullshitting about his success getting numbers from nightgame, especially when he hits on tourists. Tourist phone numbers are flakes on steroids.


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